Bracket Update - March 16th (AM Edition)
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Here's my bracket as of Sunday morning. Look for one more this afternoon. I will also likely post some scenario-based seeds depending on the outcomes of this afternoon's games, although the Committee won't likely have time to fully account for the SEC and Big Ten title games.
Again, this is what I think the brackets SHOULD look like if the Selection Committee practices what it preaches (i.e., body-of-work with extra emphasis on last 10 games and quality wins to determine the most deserving teams). I'm not trying to guess what the Committee WILL do (a la Joe Lunardi). The actual brackets will look much different than mine because the Committee will use different factors and/or weight them differently from team to team, and they have the RPI numbers and all their subcomponents, which will skew the results simply because the silly nuances of the formula.
1: North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, Tennessee
2: Kansas, Texas, Duke, Wisconsin
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Drake, Washington St
4: Butler, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Xavier
5: Southern California, Clemson, Michigan St, Marquette
6: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Indiana, Vanderbilt
7: Kent St, Purdue, Oklahoma, West Virginia
8: Texas A&M, Arizona, Gonzaga, Miami (FL)
9: BYU, Baylor, Arkansas, Davidson
10: Arizona St, Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's
11: Villanova, Kansas St, Florida St, UNLV
12: Mississippi St, Ohio State, Temple, Western Kentucky
13: Oral Roberts, Cornell, George Mason, Siena
14: CS Fullerton, Boise St, San Diego, Belmont
15: UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St, American
16: Austin Peay, Mt St. Mary's, Northwestern St, Coppin St, Miss Valley St
Last 4 In: Kansas St, Florida St, Mississippi St, Ohio State
First 4 Out: Syracuse, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts, Dayton
Next 4 Out: Creighton, Virginia Tech, Mississippi, Kentucky
Bubble Teams
Here's the overview of the bubble teams again. I think everyone from Arkansas above is locks or near locks (except maybe Arizona) and the teams below South Alabama are probably barely bubble worthy, but I included them here for context if nothing else. Of the teams I have in, Florida St, Arizona St, Ohio St, Oregon and Villanova probably are at the most risk (from highest risk to lowest risk), likely to be replaced by Saint Joseph's, Virginia Tech, South Alabama, Kentucky and (grasping for a fifth team) Syracuse or Mississippi. I fully expect Florida St and Arizona St to be out of the field, despite the fact they deserve to be in.
Georgia and Illinois (go Illini!) probably 'deserve' 13 seeds if they were to win their games today, but will likely get 12 seeds by simply replacing the last bubble teams in. The Selection Committee probably won't be able to get have contingency plans any more sophisticated than that.
| Proj | RANK | SOS | NC SOS | ||||||||
| Seed | TEAM | W | L | JCI | RPI | JCI | RPI | JCI | RPI | QW | QL |
| 8 | Texas A&M | 23 | 10 | 30 | 41 | 45 | 51 | 275 | 220 | 24 | 35 |
| 8 | Arizona | 18 | 14 | 32 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 23 | 48 |
| 8 | Miami (FL) | 21 | 10 | 34 | 34 | 50 | 41 | 282 | 143 | 32 | 46 |
| 9 | BYU | 27 | 7 | 33 | 25 | 130 | 97 | 145 | 144 | 57 | 22 |
| 9 | Baylor | 20 | 10 | 36 | 42 | 46 | 47 | 208 | 127 | 36 | 38 |
| 9 | Arkansas | 22 | 10 | 39 | 26 | 70 | 20 | 194 | 82 | 30 | 57 |
| 10 | Arizona St | 19 | 12 | 37 | 83 | 16 | 77 | 305 | 294 | 38 | 42 |
| 10 | Oregon | 18 | 13 | 38 | 58 | 4 | 37 | 185 | 169 | 43 | 37 |
| 10 | Illinois St | 23 | 9 | 40 | 33 | 85 | 73 | 186 | 115 | 42 | 40 |
| 10 | St. Mary's | 24 | 6 | 35 | 36 | 139 | 136 | 86 | 28 | 72 | 21 |
| 11 | Villanova | 20 | 12 | 43 | 51 | 38 | 48 | 231 | 158 | 34 | 61 |
| 11 | Kansas St | 19 | 11 | 41 | 50 | 44 | 33 | 179 | 86 | 49 | 43 |
| 11 | Florida St | 19 | 14 | 47 | 59 | 24 | 15 | 196 | 130 | 37 | 66 |
| 12 | Mississippi St | 22 | 10 | 45 | 39 | 87 | 57 | 217 | 125 | 50 | 51 |
| 12 | Ohio State | 19 | 13 | 44 | 49 | 23 | 17 | 25 | 13 | 51 | 44 |
| Syracuse | 19 | 13 | 51 | 55 | 36 | 9 | 199 | 20 | 35 | 76 | |
| Saint Joseph's | 21 | 12 | 56 | 45 | 73 | 53 | 137 | 116 | 29 | 99 | |
| Massachusetts | 21 | 10 | 50 | 43 | 93 | 71 | 139 | 89 | 45 | 62 | |
| Dayton | 21 | 10 | 49 | 32 | 92 | 34 | 149 | 27 | 41 | 65 | |
| Creighton | 20 | 10 | 46 | 47 | 77 | 66 | 175 | 91 | 63 | 45 | |
| Virginia Tech | 19 | 13 | 52 | 53 | 41 | 38 | 177 | 136 | 55 | 58 | |
| Mississippi | 21 | 10 | 53 | 46 | 103 | 64 | 271 | 123 | 46 | 68 | |
| Kentucky | 18 | 12 | 58 | 57 | 54 | 22 | 130 | 98 | 53 | 63 | |
| Nebraska | 19 | 12 | 55 | 96 | 55 | 94 | 280 | 310 | 69 | 52 | |
| VCU | 24 | 7 | 57 | 54 | 190 | 160 | 83 | 83 | 60 | 56 | |
| California | 16 | 15 | 59 | 92 | 5 | 26 | 290 | 175 | 52 | 64 | |
| Oklahoma St | 16 | 15 | 63 | 73 | 11 | 11 | 152 | 102 | 54 | 78 | |
| South Alabama | 24 | 6 | 54 | 38 | 214 | 127 | 126 | 69 | 83 | 36 | |
| Georgia Tech | 15 | 17 | 67 | 67 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 45 | 44 | 102 | |
| Southern Illinois | 17 | 14 | 66 | 62 | 49 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 58 | 90 | |
| Washington | 16 | 16 | 65 | 121 | 7 | 60 | 181 | 223 | 65 | 69 | |
| New Mexico | 24 | 8 | 62 | 60 | 176 | 155 | 311 | 269 | 81 | 53 | |
| Wake Forest | 17 | 13 | 64 | 100 | 52 | 86 | 219 | 268 | 68 | 71 | |
| Florida | 21 | 11 | 61 | 72 | 95 | 87 | 328 | 271 | 74 | 55 | |
| Maryland | 18 | 14 | 75 | 84 | 59 | 29 | 228 | 65 | 47 | 110 | |
posted by Jim Colton @ 6:54 AM,
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The Author:
Jim Colton
Jim lives in Wheaton, IL and when he's not rooting for the Fighting Illini, playing golf, thinking about golf, or masterminding fantasy basketball trades, he has a day job as a banker in Chicago.
About This Blog:
This blog is dedicated to college hoops and the Colton Index college basketball ratings.
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